Just finished reading a book of short articles by Stephen Baxter called "Omegatropic", which is actually the title of one of two stories also included in the book. Several of the articles have to do with an overview of a particular planet or moon (Mars, Titan, our moon) as it's been represented in sf over the years, which is very interesting (Baxter appears to have read most of the hard sf ever written), although his brief critiques of the stories outside of their basic plot should be taken with a grain of salt (most of the works he refers to are "flawed", but the source of the flaw is only rarely divulged. Personally, I thought "The Time Ships" was flawed, too).
The more interesting series of articles deals with manned space flight, and how it changed sf, particularly once we'd been to the moon and discovered it wasn't really all that interesting of a place. What we had in the '50's with can-do pioneer type stories like Heinlein's "The Man Who Sold the Moon" were gradually replaced after Apollo with either more dystopic or utilitarian approaches to the other planets. As we speak, the current Mars rovers also tend to highlight that, sense of wonder notwithstanding (or as Baxter calls it, "sensawunda", which sounds like a town in upstate New York), while it's pretty spectacular to be able to get to Mars, it sure would be great if we could actually find something remotely exciting there. So far about the only thing of significance the various Mars missions have encountered was the "face", which I think goes back to Pioneer, and still seems to crop up in the tabloids once in a while. When the Pathfinder mission landed several years ago, the Doctor Who group on usenet had some thread going that said, "Who fans vindicated", as the pictures returned from the surface of Mars proved that other planets really do look like rock quarries. Many of the prominent features of Mars probably are spectacular from a distance, but they're so huge that the sense of scale would be lost, robbing them of much that makes them special. And unmanned spacecraft have to land in relatively boring places to increase their chances of surviving the landing. We didn't expect Barsoom, but even just one spectacular vista would be welcome.
Baxter is somewhat contemptuous of the American space program, both during Apollo and in the present, and while some of it might be imperialist sour grapes, he also acknowledges that the drive to get to the moon was not fueled by science, and that any future plans of that magnitude wouldn't be either. It's all very well for Bush to announce a spectacular long-term program to build a moon base and then go to Mars, but he'll be out of office before it would even get going, and the sheer number of consecutive political leaders that would have to fall into lockstep behind it in order to see it through is large enough to seem pretty impossible.
With the lack of a significant threat to space here on earth, it would seem the most likely impetus to return to the moon and beyond would come from that direction, say if astronomers suddenly noticed a big ol' asteroid heading right for us, or some other large-scale but still fixable impending disaster that would give us an immediate and broadbased reason to get back into space in a big big hurry, one that wouldn't peter out at the next change of administration in Washington. With the technology of the '60's we went in less than a decade from blasting one guy at a time into low earth orbit all the way to sending men to land on the moon and come back a couple of times a year. All it took was the threat that the Russians would get there first. Big things can happen fast, but there has to be motivation other than just pure science, the "gee, maybe there's some salt in that rock over there" that they're trying to get us excited about with the Mars rovers right now.
Baxter is only a little older than me, and I feel his pain when says he feels robbed by the fact that we grew up with Apollo, and then as adults have had nothing since even come close. When Spirit is brought back online in the next week or two, I, for one, hope the first picture its camera sends back is an up close and personal shot of the monolith. From that moment on, our future in space would be guaranteed.




